Analytics is Just a Fancy Word for Information: Everything a Coach Needs to Know About Analytics
by Coach John Mietus
The four most directly linked statistical categories to winning a basketball game are:
1. Win the effective field goal percentage (EFG%) battle (Different than raw FG%)
2. Win the offensive rebound margin.
3. Win the free throws attempted and made battle.
4. Win the turnover margin.
1.) Win the effective field goal percentage battle.
On average a player/team will shoot about 58-65% at or near the rim on contested shots. These shots average out to a value of 1.16-1.30 points per shot (PPS). On uncontested shots at the rim players average about an 85% success rate or 1.70 PPS. Midrange jump shots are typically between 8 and 19 feet from the basket and are made on average about 42% of the time by open players and 33% of the time when contested. This equates to between 0.66-0.84 PPS depending on the defense being played. Three-point field goals are usually made at about the same clip as midrange jump shots, 40% on uncontested, 30% on contested for a 1.2 or 0.90 PPS. The math indicates that taking a contested layup has an expected point value roughly 0.50 PPS greater than taking a contested midrange jump shot, etc. Over the course of a 70 possession basketball game, a team that gets contested shots at the rim would expect to outscore a team that shoots exclusively midrange jump shots by about 35 points, assuming other variables were roughly equal. Most teams do not get beat by 35 points per game, showing how important it is to play mathematically sound basketball. An open shot is always better than a contested shot, and shots at the rim and 3-pointers are significantly more valuable than midrange jumpers. In a game of limited number of possessions for both teams points per shot and points per possession matter.
2.) Win the offensive rebound margin.
In addition to taking better quality shots it is also helpful if a team can attempt more total shots than their opponent and one great way to do that is to win the offensive rebounding margin. Offensive rebounds are more likely on close in shots due to the player already being in the area for a short rebound, making it statistically even more valuable to get to the rim. Offensive rebounds are also slightly more likely on long 3 point attempts than on midrange jump shots due to the fact that a long shot creates the possibility for a longer bounce and a less secure basket area for defensive rebounding. Both of these factors should be taken into account for shot selection as well. A team that shoots 75 shots in a game can afford to miss many more shots, shoot a lower percentage, or shoot worse quality shots compared to a team that only manages to attempt 65 shots. The downside of sending more people to rebound is that it can lead to fast breaks and therefore easy shots (high PPS value) for the other team. Effectively managing offensive rebounding is a balancing act between risk and reward and must be carefully coached depending on the strengths and weaknesses of the players involved.
3.) Win the free throws attempted and made battle.
Yet another reason to get to the rim. 80% of shooting fouls are called in the five-foot radius surrounding the basket and free throws are the single most valuable shot a player can take. An average player at the high school or college level makes 65-70% of their free throws for a 1.30-1.40 PPP scoring average for a two-shot foul, higher than any other method of scoring except for uncontested layups. Exceptional free throw shooters (80%+) add even more value here. Additionally, fouls against an opponent create substitution changes where lesser players must now fill minutes normally reserved for a team’s best five players. Fouls also create potential for a team to get into the “Bonus” early and have more free throw opportunities every time they are fouled, regardless of whether it is a shooting foul or not. Receiving two bonus foul shots for a defensive hand checking foul committed by your opponent 50 feet from the basket is a great way to win basketball games. A team that dedicates itself to getting to the rim, getting fouled, and shooting more free throws than its opponent gives itself a great chance to win every time on the court.
4.) Win the turnover battle.
This is a crucial category and very similar to effective rebounding, in that winning the turnover battle may come in various forms. Every coach wants his team to take good care of the ball and get at least one shot every possession of offense, therefore a low turnover rate is desirable. But being too careful with the ball results in passive offense and not enough rim attacks, so the coach must be careful not to completely stifle the creative energy of his players. There are many schools of thought for how to best win the turnover battle, but whatever you as a coach choose you should commit to practicing it relentlessly on a day-to-day basis. The one constant should be that control of the ball matters, and being able to take more shots than your opponent is a sure way to win more basketball games.
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